They're Both Lying

I still don't believe that if there's going to be an election this fall. If Michael Ignatieff forces an election that no one wants when he's only barely drawing even in the polls with the ruinous Harper Conservatives, he's a lot dumber than I think he is. And I think he's plenty dumb.

Given the way that Harper has governed and pissed off actual conservatives, Ignatieff should be up by fifteen points at a minimum. The best he's ever done is maybe four. Now he's at plus or minus one, depending on which poll you see.

What I think the Liberals are doing is trying to take away the NDP's only real line of attack - the fact that there's been a de facto Conservative-Liberal coalition government for nearly four years now. Ignatieff and his predecessor, Stephane Dion, have never really opposed Harper on anything, they just issued threats that they almost immediately walked away from. And that's part of what cost the Liberals nearly thirty seats just eleven months ago.

The Tories would love an election because they have all the money and organization, and think they can finally win a majority. The Liberals don't want an election either, but they lie about everything. They would just like it very much if the country doesn't continue to see them as Harper's cute little bitches who cry a lot when they're getting raped by Big Bad Steve.

But the NDP really, really don't want an election now. They haven't got a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out of. They have no money, no candidates and no platform. They have dick. If there's an election this fall, they'll very probably be destroyed in ways that even Mohammad Atta would be impressed by.

My theory is that if Count Iggy can force the NDP to prop up the Tories for awhile, he kills two birds with one stone. He takes away Jack Layton's strongest argument against the Grits and he actually gets to actually oppose things from time to time, which would be new for the Leader of the Official Opposition.

If it works, it's better than smart, it's brilliant. If it doesn't, Ignatieff is going to be back at Harvard a lot sooner than he thinks. I just hope he got tenure before he split four years ago. If Harper doesn't win a majority, he's finished. If Ignatieff doesn't win a minority at least, he's Dead. The Liberals have little patience for losers, particularly losers who didn't win a contested leadership. If nothing else, Dion beat Ignatieff. Ignatieff only beat two guys who had already dropped out of the race.

The Harper Conservatives took over in February of 2006 with pretty impressive surpluses. Harper pissed them all away trying to buy a majority, which he failed spectacularly at. That's reason enough to kick him out of office, which I would dearly like to see happen. But after the economy collapsed in the middle of the last campaign, he ran up massive deficits, which is more than ample reason to strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Chad. If Chad won't take him, he should be bound with chains and dropped in the sea.

I like my conservatives to be conservative about the things that matter, like money and bombing folks; and silent about things that don't, like abortion, gay marriage and everything else. There is nothing at all conservative about the Conservative Party of Canada. They're little more than Liberals with personality disorders.

Not only are they shopoholics, they're so bitchy about it. "We have an unnecessary and expensive home renovation tax credit, what have you got?" Watching them govern has been like seeing an endless loop of "Heathers" without the Christian Slater character.

Let's assume that Michael Ignatieff has miscalculated the NDP's suicidal instincts and we indeed have yet another tiresome election that accomplishes nothing this fall. That election is going to be all about two things: how much the Grits are lying about the desirability of a coalition with the NDP and supported by the Bloc, and the economy.

Which means it's time for everybody to start lying! Ready .... Set .... GO!

In Sudbury and again in Vancouver, Ignatieff said one reason to bring down the government is incompetent fiscal management. But when asked whether he would slay the deficit through program spending cuts or tax hikes, Ignatieff said: "We will not cut. We will not come to the Canadian public with proposals that break the bank."
He reminded reporters the Liberals cleaned up a $42 billion deficit inherited from the Mulroney Conservatives in the 1990s, "and we did so without raising taxes."

What do you mean "we", white man? Weren't you in England then? Also, a big chunk of the "Mulroney" deficit was created by Pierre Trudeau, but the Liberals will never tell you that because the Liberals are genetically dishonest.

But I will give Jean Chretien and Paul Martin credit. They did slay the deficit monster. But they did it by slashing the fuck out of program spending and transfer payments to the provinces as the tech boom increased revenues above and beyond all rational expectations. The only reason they survived as long as they did is because there was no united Conservative Party in the 90's. You don't slash and burn when there's an actual opposition to demagogue you to death on it.

There sort of is now, and no government is going to take the political risks Chretien did in the face of it. Unless of course the Tories make Stockwell Day leader again after they bury Harper in an abandoned asbestos mine somewhere. Then they might because Stockwell Day could actually be autistic.

"We've inherited a $50 billion hole from Mr. Harper. We will clean it up without raising taxes."

Asked how, Ignatieff said: "Wait and see."

I actually can't wait to see that. Because there are only three ways to reduce deficits: raising taxes, cutting spending, or hoping for a massive economic boom, which is a lot like planting magic beans and hoping they grow into magic beanstalks. Basing economic forecasts on a potential future boom is a lot like my saying that I have a four foot long cock, which I actually do ... if you start measuring from my chin and then go downward and out. Both make a certain kind of sense, but neither is particularly satisfying in the long run.

I wonder what the Michael Ignatieff of this past April would say about the Michael Ignatieff of September's promises.

But back in April, answering a question from a breakfast audience in Cambridge, Ignatieff had said Canadians may face increased taxes or spending cuts if, after a recovery takes hold, there remained a long-term "structural deficit."

He said no "honest politician" would suggest otherwise.

Wow! April Ignatieff was so ... honest. What a difference five months makes, huh? I wonder how September Ignatieff ended up being such a dishonest prick. Is he taking lessons?

But what about the prime minister? Where's his head at?

Harper said the government stimulus plan would see the economy come out of recession and government revenues rise – therefore no tax hikes would be necessary.

"Ah, I love you, magic beans! You're so magical!" Maybe if Harper kisses every frog he sees, one of them will turn into a budget surplus and we can all return to Fat City, too.

During a radio interview with host David Rutherford, Harper said he expected Canada will return to a position of "structural surplus" once the recovery takes hold and employment rates go up. He said it will be a "challenge" to stop government spending, but boasted the Tories are best placed to do that.

"We're confident that if we restrain spending growth as we have laid out once the recession is over, without tax increases, in the next four to five years we should move back into surplus position."

Horseshit! You fucking people had spending down to a science well before the economy went south. That's why I hate you, remember?

By the way, if you're a "conservative", stopping government spending isn't "a challenge", IT'S WHAT YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO FUCKING DO! Just as Rastafarians smoke ganja and bang hot white tourist chicks on the beach all day, conservatives are supposed to not spend money frivolously. You assholes! That's supposed to be the only reason you exist, you dumb cocksuckers.

But then the prime minister seemed to have stopped drinking. Sort of.

Rutherford pressed Harper to say "categorically" he won't raise taxes.
Harper, who almost always telegraphs policy positions he will take in advance, took a while to get to an answer, and it was less than clear.

"No, we're not, well, let me say this. We will not – obviously this government has been lowering taxes. That's one of our objectives in terms of being in a good long-term economic position. We're going to have some of the lowest tax rates coming out of this recession of any country in the world. So if we can keep our long-term spending under control, we will have a very strong investment advantage position for that. Now, in terms of raising taxes, I will just say this, just to qualify, we have no – we are not going to raise taxes – this government is philosophically opposed to raising taxes."

But that appears not to include what Harper himself called "payroll taxes."

After last winter's budget, he boasted about freezing "payroll taxes" or employment insurance premiums. He admitted now that employment insurance premiums will eventually rise "automatically because they cycle with the economy."

"But this government is determined to keep taxes low in this country. That is obviously something very different."

If the Conservatives lose this fall, assuming that there's an election, and there won't be, you just saw where Stephen Harper lost it.

I would actually consider voting for the Conservatives - which I've never done before - if they said that putting the GST back where it was might be necessary. Shithead Liberal talking points aside, the Great Collapse of '08 wasn't Harper's fault. The blame for that can be laid squarely on America's porch, with their Oprah economics of "You get a house, and you get a house, and you get a house!" and a banking system that was almost begging to be euthanized. Besides which, we're still better off than any other country in the world in terms of our economy. Mostly because we haven't elected children like George W. Bush and Barack Obama recently.

Raising the GST back to 7% puts incoming revenue back to where it was in 2006. Increasing EI taxes just pisses everybody off and recreates the Chretien trick of building surpluses on the backs of the unemployed. Except it won't create a surplus. The deficit is way to large for that.

Even a combination of a GST increase and increased payroll taxes probably won't pay down a deficit that no one seems to know the size of. There are going to have to cuts, and painful ones at that. Maybe not as deep as in the 90's, but they're going to have to be there, right alongside tax increases.

That's why if either Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff end up in a town near you, you should demand that they give you details. And if either of them launches into the nonsense that I've chronicled above, you should lunge at them with your chair. Remember, the RCMP aren't half as competent as the US Secret Service. If some drunken lunatic can get into the Chretien's bedroom, you should be able to crown either of these lying scumbags with a metal folding chair. If you yell "Don't taze me, Bro" loud enough, they'll probably let you continue. Just don't yell it in Polish, if you can.

Just remind yourself over and over again that if you want to vote for magic beans, that's what the NDP's for. They're at least honest about their complete ignorance of mathematics.

Update: A new Strategic Counsel poll (Strategic Counsel being a firm headed by former Chretien muckety-muck Peter Donolo) shows the Tories up by five nationally and the Liberals falling in both Ontario and Quebec, where over half of Parliament's seats are.

To win a majority, Ignatieff has to double his seat count, and to win a minority, he has to pick up somewhere in the neighbourhood of 45 seats.

I'm not a particularly big fan of polls. I happen to think that campaigns are far more important than polls. But they do tend to reflect public attitudes. The Donolo poll was conducted nearly a week after Ignatieff announced that Harper was screwed, so you can take from it that folks aren't really thrilled at the prospect of voting yet again and seem to be taking it out on the Grits. And the Conservatives haven't begun to saturate the airwaves with negative ads yet.

What does this tell me? It tells me that Iggy is a fool to rely on the cowardice of Jumpin' Jack and better start walking away from this threat. Again.

A trend? If it's Wednesday, it must be a Nanos poll, this one showing the Tories up by 4, an improvement of over six points in just five weeks.

From a dead heat to a four or five point Harper lead in a week? Something tells me that Iggy's miscalculating something fierce and he's getting punished for it.

Don't get me wrong, this has gone too far for those idiots not to have a confidence vote. But I expect a good number of Dippers n' Grits to come down with a sudden case of confidence vote flu later this month. Some of them might actually complain of "aching ovaries."

Or could they really be this crazy?